Global events like COVID-19 heighten the interconnectivity of our food supply chain and we are collaborating with our clients to navigate through this crisis. To that end, Crisp has made live exclusive European supermarket point-of-sale data available to help our clients understand the impact of COVID-19 and the demand, inventory & replenishment effects predicted to be felt 2-4 weeks later in the US Market. Through Crisp’s DemandWatch, we are able to help the food industry make informed decisions during critical moments in time. We aim to not only flatten the curve, but to help you get ahead of it.
Crisp DemandWatch will be tracking data points to understand the following:
- What items spiked immediately after the outbreak
- How long it takes to return to ‘normal’ buying patterns for each item
- Is there a difference between fresh vs. frozen and fresh vs. canned in the short and long-term
- Who are the ‘winners and losers’ each week vs. their typical demand rate before and after the spike of the pandemic-driven surge
Here are a few notable trends we already see in the data:
- During the week of the surge, we saw a huge uptick in typical stock-up supplies - ground meat (presumably to freeze), canned goods, baking goods, soups, ready-to-make casseroles, rice, and pasta. We also saw a huge uptick in cleaning supplies.
- One week later, we continued to see consumers stocking up and the weekly total demand for some of the previously mentioned categories are still up 30%-250%. The supply chain is still steadily catching up on some of these products, but it might take another week or two before everyone has stocked up with what they think they need and the total inventory levels return back to normal. We do however expect demand to remain at slightly higher levels than normal as more people prepare and eat breakfast, lunch and dinner at home.
- It is interesting to note that we are seeing some new categories pop-up - snacks, chocolates, candles, seeds & bulbs, tools & paint. This is presumably as consumers are preparing to spend a lot more time at home and making sure that they can stay busy with home repairs and gardening - while keeping kids (and adults) content with some treats.
We also predict that vendors are going to see massive orders from their retailers. This spike in demand is not simply reflective of consumer demand, but also to replenish the warehouse levels that need to be maintained as safety stock.
We invite you to visit DemandWatch and book a free consultation with Crisp for a deeper dive into how this data can impact your products specifically. In order to ease the burden on the food supply community, we are also pleased to offer three free months of forecasting to see you through this pandemic.